Phatscotty wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:Phatscotty wrote:When I was in college, about 2000 ish, we did an hour on how much of the economy the gov't controlled (macro-econ 131). At that time, it was 38%, and we classify that officially as a "mixed" economy. Not totally free, but not totally controlled by gov't.
During the Bank Bailouts, reports at that time put gov't control just below 50%. I have not seen an official report or read a similar story since then, but I must reason that since the Auto bailouts, there can be no doubt the gov't officially runs well over 50% of the entire economy. Add the 17% health care represents, and you gotta call it official socialism.
I do not know if the federal gov't, getting about 25% of every dollar a company makes[(except those that hire lobbyist, of course) (income tax, SS, Med, Med)], qualifies that as 25% ownership. but it should.
At some point after the gov't hits the 50% mark of controlling "everything", its becomes harder and harder to not be a slave.
It fascinates me there is still a couple people out there that think the crash of 2007/8 was due to the economy being too "free"
have you a link to any of these reports or perhaps some good reading material concerning this?
Of course, I have saved about every story/link/thesis I have ever read/written in my life, well, ok... an awful lot tho. But first, Mr Stalin, might you indulge me for a moment. I would be very interested to hear what you might guesstimate federal ownership might be. Lets just go with 2009-2010 since it is most current. Banks, Autos, and if we may, assume the healthcare/insurance industry as well. Right off the bat, how much of the economy would you guess that to be?
Thank you for the question, PhatScotty.
Do we not learn more efficiently and meaningfully when one is forced to provide the answer--instead of merely regurgitating an already given answer?
BBS's journey into uncharted territory begins... For the sake of simplicity, let's have a look-see at this about.com article of dubious credibility and no sources.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/f/GDP_Components.htm What Are the Components of GDP?
By Kimberly Amadeo, About.com Guide
Over 70% of what the U.S. produces is for personal consumption - about $10 trillion of the $14 trillion total GDP. This is because the U.S. has a a lot of people within its borders, so it has become very good at providing higher quality services for its own people.
Nearly half of GDP is services, not products. The two largest service industries are real estate (10%) and health care (12%).
The other half is products, which are further divided into two sub-ocategories. Non-durable goods are 20% of GDP. The three largest components f non-durable goods are food (10%), clothing (2.7%) and fuel (2.4%).
Durable goods, such as autos (3.6%) and furniture (3%) is the smallest, at only 8% of GDP.
The remaining 30% of GDP that is not for personal consumption is in two categories. The first is business investment, such as software, business equipment, and manufacturing (16%). The second is government, which is 20% of total GDP. State and local government produce 12% of GDP. he Federal Government produces 8% of GDP, and two-thirds of this defense-related. (Updated December 20, 2009)
Note: The percentages don't total exactly to 100%, because of calculations made to net out exports from imports, and from changes in inventory.)
Also keep in mind that even though the federal government does own the majority of shares in large corporations in the Autos, banking, and healthcare/insurance sectors, it doesn't own most of them (GDP-wise, except for maybe the automobile sector), so who knows what % of those sectors they directly control.
Let's break all that down into something easier to stare at:
Over 70% of what the U.S. produces (GDP) is for personal consumption:
___________________
50% in services (35% of total GDP)real estate (10%) and health care (12%)
___________________
50% in products (35% of total GDP)non-durable (20%)
-----food (10%), clothing (2.7%) and fuel (2.4%).
and durable goods (8%)
-----Autos (3.6%) and furniture (3%)
[Well, since 8% + 20% = 28%. where the hell is the 7%?]
___________________
The remaining 30% of GDP:
business investment, such as software, business equipment, and manufacturing (16%).
Government directly: (20%)
[UHP! There's that 6%, dropping from right out of the sky! We're still missing 1%, but who's counting?]
__________________________
So, we got govt at 20% but you with 25%, which comes to (23%), let's assume all of health care which is 12%, you 17%, so that's (14%), and a rounded up (3%) for the Autos (because GM is freakin huge), so that's 40%.
But how much does banking amount to? Let's just pull a number out of the donkey's ass and call it (4%). Now, 44%
____________________
But what about "investments?" Investment is extremely important, and the bailout money leaves the government the power to decide who goes and who doesn't, or who thrives and who stagnates. It's not exactly ownership, but imagine how much say-so the government has on who stays an owner and who losses everything to bankruptcy.
Let's base the bailout money on the number that was actually invested, which according to money.CCN.com's David Goldman
http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/index.html [his source: Federal Reserve, Treasury, FDIC, CBO, White House] comes out to $3 trillion.
I've never taken any economy classes and what I know is very limited, so I'm going to assume I can do this: $3 trillion / $14 trillion equals 21% GDP, but part of this money was already calculated earlier (into the purchases of banks, health insurance, and automobile companies), and even though money invested doesn't always amount to ownership, it does leave one with favors that should later be repaid (but sometimes aren't repaid). And, another factor: some % of this money had no strings attached for small- to medium-sized businesses and the like. The government didn't directly handpick these beneficiaries (I assume), but left it to a some kind of form to be filled out. ALSO, some percentage of this money was paid back; however, some favors may still be due (or not at all due).
So that figure of 21% now faces: "govt influence in the form of favors due" subtracted by "money paid back, previously mentioned calculations, and no strings attached." To save time and spare myself a headache, I'll just say 44% + 10% = 54%, but who knows, so I'll tack on a (+/-5) to that 54%.
But, let's also play with this alternative: bailout money percentage will only be calculated within the investment impact on GDP, which was grouped with "business investment, yadayada, manufacturing of 16%," which I shall simply adjust to a modest (8%). 44% + 8% = 52%.
_________________________
In conclusion, based on something shaky and with all potential problems in mind, my guesstimate on federal ownership of the US economy based on this adjusted GDP to be
roughly as high up to 59% to as low as 49%.
(BBS immediately launches a pelvic thrust with a crude "UGH!" bursting from his mouth. He quickly sits down, kicks the feet upon the desk, lights up a tobacco rollie, and looks inquisitively at PhatScotty).
What's your "guesstimate," good sir?
