POTC Mafia Game Thread Day 7 Town Win! Premium goes to Sully

[TheSaxlad]

I agree. If edoc says streaker is the Mafia then I believe he is, the claim fits.

Although edoc just for safety by the end of this day, can you tell us everyone in the mafia? Or is there a restriction as to how many you tell per day? It might also be worth protecting him for one night only while an investigation goes on.

This is all IF streaker turns up mafia. vote streaker

[got tonkaed]

As to my previous post, I may have been slightly intoxicated. I just have a vibe that both mandy and commander are on opposing groups and that neither have to be town.

In light of edoc's confession, I don't get why he isn't lynched first and then streaker tomorrow. I haven't voted mostly because I haven't really seen a need to often thus far in the game, most of the time simply saying someone's name is enough to get some talking going.

It seems like edoc could just as likely be a lyncher in the scenario that is lined up and while it is a believable claim, he did have pretty much the whole game day to sort it out and in fact gave the town a predictor that he would be. In this sense, it would be more surprising if the claim wasn't believable.

He does not claim to know who the godfather is, but rather claims to have an idea.

Id personally have no problem keeping him around if he disclosed a second mafia member, that way we could lynch them today and possibly still give edoc an off chance at outliving Jack. If he is lying about part of his claim, id suspect the outliving Jack part is true and the not needing to lynch streaker part would be false.

[TheSaxlad]

Why would Feng need to outlive Jack though? Also another thought is could streaker be jack and edoc is just trying to get us to clear him out?

[got tonkaed]

Why would Feng need to outlive Jack though? Also another thought is could streaker be jack and edoc is just trying to get us to clear him out?

If thats the case though, why do what edoc would want done? Surely lynching streaker first benefits a non town player in a clear way.
What that way is remains uncertain, but I don't see why anyone wants a streaker lynch which could benefit a lyncher. If anything, edoc has directly said he doesnt know who the GF is. If everything was true and edoc was simply running a gambit, we lynch a different mafia name today and if everything turns out very lucky the next name he mentions is the godfather. If not, an extra mafia name is outed and then he has another day to try and outlive Jack.

[mandalorian2298]

As to my previous post, I may have been slightly intoxicated. I just have a vibe that both mandy and commander are on opposing groups and that neither have to be town.

In light of edoc's confession, I don't get why he isn't lynched first and then streaker tomorrow. I haven't voted mostly because I haven't really seen a need to often thus far in the game, most of the time simply saying someone's name is enough to get some talking going.

It seems like edoc could just as likely be a lyncher in the scenario that is lined up and while it is a believable claim, he did have pretty much the whole game day to sort it out and in fact gave the town a predictor that he would be. In this sense, it would be more surprising if the claim wasn't believable.

He does not claim to know who the godfather is, but rather claims to have an idea.

Id personally have no problem keeping him around if he disclosed a second mafia member, that way we could lynch them today and possibly still give edoc an off chance at outliving Jack. If he is lying about part of his claim, id suspect the outliving Jack part is true and the not needing to lynch streaker part would be false.

This is why Tonka is the one and only original Town hero.

If I lie NK me tonight, Mandy, the only other person you have even close to enough momentum to hang isn't EITC, hence why I am playing this gambit now, you really don't have a choice but to go with me, what I offer is to great to ignore for the town. The names of 5 scum, how can that be ignored?

I completely agree with Tonka's condition. Edoc, give us another scum today, whom we'll lynch to prove that you are not a Lyncher. You see, mate, if you are a Lyncher, then NKing you after you have won won't cheer us up much. On the other hand, if your treachery is on the level, then you can bet your VC that the Doc will be protecting your MVP ass as long as you are useful.

Of course, we are all worldly people here. We all know that, by the time you have given us the 4th scum you either will have won or you will lie to us because given us the 5th scum will most likely mean your defeat. So, don't be stingy and give us another one. Otherwise, I'm afraid I must conclude that you don't really want to help us.

P.S. Huh? I guess, after Buffy, 'Mandy' has become a new word meaning 'Vig'.

[edocsil]

The underlined was two different thoughts, should have been a period after tonight.

I will agree to giving the name of one other, I can see how it is reasonable. It gives me fewer nights to win, but its better then the odds could be otherwise.

Vote Haggis.

[edocsil]

The underlined was two different thoughts, should have been a period after tonight.

I will agree to giving the name of one other, I can see how it is reasonable. It gives me fewer nights to win, but its better then the odds could be otherwise.

Vote Haggis.

That should be Unvote, Vote Haggis

[mandalorian2298]

unvote vote Haggis. A pleasure doing business with you, mate.

Also, given how completely insane your strategy is, I hope you get a win out of this (by Jack being killed, not by Mafia winning with you in their tow). Insanity should be rewarded.

[nagerous]

Alright, time for the gambit.

I am the Sao Feng, Town Traitor, I win with the mafia. That however is not the the win condition I am aiming for. If Jack dies while I am alive I win as well.

So the way my role works is if Jack dies while I am alive I win, and if I make it to the end of the game alive and the mafia win, I win as well. The issue with that is they don't know that I am allied with them, hence I end up dead, and not winning. My odds are much better selling them out (I know who they all are, but not roles) and crossing my fingers that Jack dies before I do. Like I said, the town and I have something the other wants. I know all the EITC, you have doc protections. Every day I am alive I will give you another scum, and I will hope that Jack gets NKed.

In good faith I will Unvote Vote Streaker, He is my best guess for Beckett as the GF, as he has been the most aggressive out of the scum, something typical of the GF. Others have also argued for his lynch, so I think he is one you will be willing to hang to test my truthfulness. He is also gunning for me, and if he is the mafia GF as I suspect, it is really in my best interests to make sure he isn't the one directing the kill...

So who do you hang? Me or Streaker.

Ugh, I made a post and now have subsequently restarted it as I realised I was talking complete bollocks. All in all your strategy appears to be giving town an easy win and also reduces the chances of Jack dying, I would definitely have not taken this ridiculous gamble if I was in your shoes but would have sat back more and laid low. The way I see it, is we're going to have to trust you and protect you until you give us a lynch that is not scum and then you yourself will be straight on the chopping board. I think there is the possibility still that you are setting us up for a trap too and could be trying to get us to lynch Captain Jack Sparrow. I would definitely like to hear claims from both Streaker and Haggis today.

[got tonkaed]

Nagerous is right that we should hear the claims, but I think we know the score until then.

Vote Haggis

[mandalorian2298]

I have a feeling I know what name Edoc will name next....

[strike wolf]

unvote vote haggis if he is telling the truth haggis should be scum. If he is lying than it's more likely that streaker is his lynch target and mentioning haggis was designed as a smoke screen. That being said. I have to agree that I don't understand this gambit coming from a traitor.

[nagerous]

I have a feeling I know what name Edoc will name next....

Well if you think it is me, you're wrong

[edocsil]

unvote vote haggis if he is telling the truth haggis should be scum. If he is lying than it's more likely that streaker is his lynch target and mentioning haggis was designed as a smoke screen. That being said. I have to agree that I don't understand this gambit coming from a traitor.

I really didn't want to do it this early, I was hoping I could have laid low for another day or two. But I played a piss poor D1 and I was likely going to be hung today. We only had 5 days left and I was at 4 votes. There wasn't going to be another case to save me so I gambled.

[pancakemix]

I don't trust this. I have no reason to doubt that edoc is telling the truth here. He's been very open about his alignment. That said, I still have some reservations. First of all, edoc is stealing our doc from us, which is kinda one of the most valuable things we have. Second, let me put forward an interesting little scenario of how this agreement might play out (this assumes were 5 mafia initially, there is no active vig and there are no crosskills)

1. D2 3 left
2. N2
3. N2
4. D3 2 left
5. N3
6. N3
7. D4 1 left
8. N4
9. N4 (Jack Sparrow)
10. D5 edoc lies (still 1 left)
11. N5
12. N5
13. D6 lynch edoc (forced, LYLO scenario)
14. N6
15. N6
16. 1 Mafia
17. 1 Town
18. Davy Jones

Again, this doesn't account for a number of possibilities, but it is itself entirely possible. In addition, we have no knowledge of what Jack Sparrow's role is. He could be pretty much anything, and may even be something the town does not want to lose. At this point, the mafia, certainly aren't going to be hunting for him. Once he's dead, though, edoc has no incentive to help us. I say he should give us all the names.

EDIT (because I don't want to rewrite all that): If the quote below is the truth, then we're almost certainly walking into a trap.

The names of 5 scum, how can that be ignored?

If there are 5 scum alive right now, we are boned. If edoc lies at the same point as in the earlier scenario, Mafia get the game handed to them by making a few sacrifices (2 scum+1 pro scum vs. 1 town vs. DJ). I'll unvote for now, but I won't be rash. Edoc, you got some 'splainin to do.

[Victor Sullivan]

Wait, where did Davy Jones come from on your 18th point, pancakemix? I'm confused... Anyway, I have no reason to believe edocsil is lying, so I'll run with the Haggis lynch, despite pancakemix's rundown. There is a vig, as evidenced by Norrington's getting NK'd last night, so I don't think things will end up in the predicament you described.

[pancakemix]

Wait, where did Davy Jones come from on your 18th point, pancakemix? I'm confused... Anyway, I have no reason to believe edocsil is lying, so I'll run with the Haggis lynch, despite pancakemix's rundown. There is a vig, as evidenced by Norrington's getting NK'd last night, so I don't think things will end up in the predicament you described.

That is where I'm getting Davy Jones from. The "do you fear death?" tidbit is his trademark. Hence, he's here and he's killing. Some of the early D2 discussion concerned this.

[got tonkaed]

Why does the doc have to protect edoc though. Its his gambit, and as an anti-town role, is of no great loss to the town if he gets taken down by the mafia. It would be strange for him to be vig/sk killed but if haggis turns up scum its already a steal because there was next to no heat on him as a player.

Haggis lynch - good chance streaker is scum
edoc night kill - safe to lynch streaker next day.

Seems like 3 dead scums.

[Victor Sullivan]

Wait, where did Davy Jones come from on your 18th point, pancakemix? I'm confused... Anyway, I have no reason to believe edocsil is lying, so I'll run with the Haggis lynch, despite pancakemix's rundown. There is a vig, as evidenced by Norrington's getting NK'd last night, so I don't think things will end up in the predicament you described.

That is where I'm getting Davy Jones from. The "do you fear death?" tidbit is his trademark. Hence, he's here and he's killing. Some of the early D2 discussion concerned this.

Meh, I think it's a town vig still, despite the tidbit.

Oh, and I forgot: unvote, vote Haggis

[edocsil]

Why does the doc have to protect edoc though. Its his gambit, and as an anti-town role, is of no great loss to the town if he gets taken down by the mafia. It would be strange for him to be vig/sk killed but if haggis turns up scum its already a steal because there was next to no heat on him as a player.

Haggis lynch - good chance streaker is scum
edoc night kill - safe to lynch streaker next day.

Seems like 3 dead scums.

With me alive 2 more days you get the name of 2 more scum, one each day. After tonight if the town does it's job properly there should be 3 dead scum, Streaker, who will be nked once it is proven I am telling the truth with Haggis, and then there will be 2 scum left, as Mr. S was already killed. If you kill me rather then protect me there will be two more scum alive that you will have to find. If you keep me alive tonight and tomorrow night you will be told all of the scum, leaving the town with a single faction left to deal with, Davey Jones. Much better for you to take a risk trusting me and eliminating the mafia kill, then betraying me in the night.

@ PCM The only issue with you math is the assumption of no active vig and no crosskills. With a mafia of this kind of size, and Jones to boot, there must be some substantial town power out there. At least one Vig, if not DKs and JOATs, and all kinds of other goodies.

[TheSaxlad]

Why can't we have the names of all 4 scum now?

[edocsil]

Why can't we have the names of all 4 scum now?

Because then at worst you kill me and at best you don't protect me and the scum kill me?

[got tonkaed]

I get where the theoretical benefit is don't get me wrong. At the same time though, that benefit does leave us open to any unfortunate scenarios where you haven't been fully honest with us. Yes it would be sad to lose out on those 2 extra names, but it would not be the end of the world.

Besides it is not like the scum know whether or not you will be protected. Id think protection assuming haggis is scum is fair. At the same time, with you still alive, we can't lynch streaker.

There is no guarantee you will follow through on any perceived dealings beyond the one you have already made. As such, you should not be required to be protected based on future possibilities.

[edocsil]

I get where the theoretical benefit is don't get me wrong. At the same time though, that benefit does leave us open to any unfortunate scenarios where you haven't been fully honest with us. Yes it would be sad to lose out on those 2 extra names, but it would not be the end of the world.

Besides it is not like the scum know whether or not you will be protected. Id think protection assuming haggis is scum is fair. At the same time, with you still alive, we can't lynch streaker.

There is no guarantee you will follow through on any perceived dealings beyond the one you have already made. As such, you should not be required to be protected based on future possibilities.

I couldn't care less if you actually kill/ hang them or not. Hang streaker last for all I care, he isn't my target. but seeing as you want the names and I can give them dead.... Who would you rather protect? Someone who could possibly be the cop who might guess the last few scum correctly?

[nagerous]

Putting aside my suspicions for now...scum will definitely look to kill edoc tonight, he is by far their biggest threat - in that vein for the next night phase at least he should be protected.

Streaker should be vig killed.

unvote vote haggis