Search found 105 matches

by Bean_
Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:15 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Dice
Replies: 19
Views: 588

Re: Dice

How would using pi make it more random? The sequences, as the number goes on, would have the EXACT same properties as the random numbers brought in. And, also, the fact that a sequence will come up more the more numbers have come in, is in itself a fallacy. If you center on one section, the numbers ...
by Bean_
Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:54 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Dice
Replies: 19
Views: 588

Re: Dice

It's random numbers, and regardless of complaints, it IS random. Pi is not random. These numbers, regardless that they are pulled from a file, are randomly produced, and just saved. Pi never changes, these numbers are different each and every time.

No no no. The numbers aren't random, it's per ...
by Bean_
Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:01 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: dice.vs.skill
Replies: 91
Views: 7196

Re: dice.vs.skill

When the dice sucks, you lose. The skill is to win when the dice rolls.

Yes, when the dice suck, you lose. When the dice are moderately bad, you can still win if your skill is much better than your opponent's, but not if your skill is about the same. In teams play, "moderately bad" works out to ...
by Bean_
Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:55 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Dice
Replies: 19
Views: 588

Re: Dice

I lose 15-5, so other guys +6 bonus holds. I lose 9-4. +9 bonus holds. I attack with every single attacking army I have and get 4 territories. Meanwhile other guy is rolling me 3-3 losing nothing. Which inspired me to start this thread.

The question is not, are the dice random... but how often do ...
by Bean_
Mon Mar 31, 2008 6:16 pm
Forum: Completed 2008
Topic: Triples War [WINNERS: Big Whiskey, RL_Orange, RiskTycoon]
Replies: 358
Views: 95948

Re: Triples War (12/12)

Chinski Brothers (Naato's group) were supposed to play DimAAximVs (DiM's group) in game 19, 2007640 (which I can't find as having been set up)

The winner of that game then plays Los Diablos (dragon dor's group) in game 20
The winner of game 20 plays Giant Mongolian Speaker (Genghis Khan CA's group ...
by Bean_
Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:11 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

Repeated once or more than once? Auto attack or not?
by Bean_
Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:20 am
Forum: Completed 2008
Topic: Triples War [WINNERS: Big Whiskey, RL_Orange, RiskTycoon]
Replies: 358
Views: 95948

Giant Mongolian Speaker v. Horsemen 1-0 1746295
by Bean_
Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:23 am
Forum: Completed 2008
Topic: NFL Doubles [CHAMPIONS: happy2seeyou & fish061]
Replies: 332
Views: 77728

The Denver Broncos (14-3) advance to the AFC Championship Game for a rematch against Houston (13-5).
by Bean_
Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:19 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

These were 3 separate clicks.

The odds to get the same 5 digit number are : 6x6x6x6x6= 7056 and then 7056x7056x7056= 351.298.031.616.

That's a chance of 1 out of at least 351 billion !!

It's a little less than that -- given the first one, it's 6^-5 for the second one and another 6^-5 for the ...
by Bean_
Fri Feb 08, 2008 5:34 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive ...
by Bean_
Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:06 pm
Forum: Completed 2008
Topic: Triples War [WINNERS: Big Whiskey, RL_Orange, RiskTycoon]
Replies: 358
Views: 95948

Genghis Khan CA, Ender_, Bean_ win 1630892, the final round 1 game.
by Bean_
Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:21 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

Can you provide proof, e.g., screenshots, of this? Part of the problem I am having is that I hear a lot of anecdotal evidence, but in order to show the powers that be that this is occurring more frequently than it should, we need something verifiable.

That is exactely the problem. I personally ...
by Bean_
Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:47 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

1700819

An example of how bad the dice are... Typical esc game, where I have it won... Final attack to collect 5 more beautiful cards and sweep the board... Hmm wait batman, what's that?

Tell me, what are the odds of me losing 17 vs 2....

Honestly tell me that. come up with your explanation of ...
by Bean_
Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:35 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

You are right about that psychology stuff but i'm not saying that in the end the dice don't turn out equally. After all, if there's bad dice then everyone gets this as well. So nobody will gain or lose anything on how the dice rolls at CC.

But better players, who calculate and balance out the ...
by Bean_
Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:26 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227



C. To truly assess the randomness of the dice, you cannot go simply by your (or anyone else's perception), for many reasons. As a human you are INCAPABLE of giving an unbiased assessment. You need to assess it with complex mathematical formulae.

D. By -the way, though no algorythm is really and ...
by Bean_
Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:19 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???
Replies: 65
Views: 6227

The point of the ad-hoc groups is just to host private discussions between people that know what they are talking about, but everything that happens out here is discussed in private, also. So if you post a discussion thread about the dice, people in the group will see that discussion and carry any ...
by Bean_
Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:20 pm
Forum: Archived Suggestions
Topic: 3 new Ad-Hoc [full]
Replies: 33
Views: 6104

Re: erm???

Night Strike wrote:
dominationnation wrote:
wcaclimbing wrote:
Hotdoggie wrote:Now I check my sentbox and my outbox and the message is in neither...did you even read it??


weird....
Same thing for me.


same...


ditto.


ditto.
by Bean_
Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:34 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Insanest thing you seen
Replies: 43
Views: 1518

Scott-Land wrote:Risk related-- Prankcall autoing 18 vs 52 and had 9 leftover..........


That's about 1 in 400,000. Impressive.
by Bean_
Thu Jan 31, 2008 4:07 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Randomisation
Replies: 36
Views: 1474

Uhhhh, when did I tell you it was shuffled?

It's not shuffled....It's just reused.

You might also be off on your dice flip analogy - that is based on the assumption that the dice are evenly distributed (i.e. we started with a fixed amount of each - 250000 heads/tails and then the randomness is ...
by Bean_
Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:21 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Randomisation
Replies: 36
Views: 1474

1. How so? The lines are shuffled after the file has been "used up". The individual lines remain the same but the order of the lines is randomised, as far as I have understood the process.

I was told by Twill that it was shuffled (no details on the shuffling process, but it would seem you would ...
by Bean_
Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:35 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Randomisation
Replies: 36
Views: 1474

Ok,

There is no memory with the dice. Your arguments are flawed. Why? Let me explain.

The theory that the list gets stale, that the probability changes when a large percentage of the list is used up, would be vailid if this was a deck of cards. If you have only 2 cards left in the deck and never ...
by Bean_
Thu Jan 31, 2008 3:17 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: the dice, quit kidding yourselves and open your eyes
Replies: 19
Views: 2184

Oddly enough, although the methodology used here is not correct, it may actually result in *less* streakiness than true randomness would suggest. Here is a thought experiment:

Consider a sequence of flipping 20 coins. Under true randomness, there should be a 2^-20 chance of having 20 heads, or 20 ...
by Bean_
Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:20 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Randomisation
Replies: 36
Views: 1474

Re: Randomisation

So what is true randomisation?

Before I start, I should make it clear that I am a ‘determinist’, and so hold the belief that nothing is ultimately random.

Machines by their very nature and the humans who control them cannot be 100% random. It is a known scientific fact that humans find pure ...
by Bean_
Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:10 am
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: Randomisation
Replies: 36
Views: 1474

Mr Benn hit it pretty close.

The file is 500,000 rolls and once each roll has been used we turn around and re-use the file.
We re-fresh the file from time to time...on a random basis...when we have time

We are looking at setting up a system which pulls a new dice file every day, but will still ...
by Bean_
Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:08 pm
Forum: Conquer Club Discussion
Topic: So.... is this even possible?
Replies: 35
Views: 2008

The potential of 6 armies taking out 15 armies while conquering 5 territories is highly unlikely, but it's obviously not "not possible" because it happened here . Red not only did it in this game, but also those same 6 armies took those 5 countries without a single loss, Afganistan --the last of ...

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