One more thing about the dice.

[urbansloth]

...a whole bunch of stuff that cut RADAGA down...

GOLD, Jerry - GOLD!!

But then again, I lost a whole bunch of 3x1's this morning, maybe I'll change sides...

[Night Strike]

...a whole bunch of stuff that cut RADAGA down...

GOLD, Jerry - GOLD!!

But then again, I lost a whole bunch of 3x1's this morning, maybe I'll change sides...

Oh man......that took me back to my 2nd semester of college in our Critical Thinking gen ed class. So glad that class was only a 1 hour course.

[SuicidalSnowman]

...a whole bunch of stuff that cut RADAGA down...

GOLD, Jerry - GOLD!!

But then again, I lost a whole bunch of 3x1's this morning, maybe I'll change sides...

Oh man......that took me back to my 2nd semester of college in our Critical Thinking gen ed class. So glad that class was only a 1 hour course.

I think logic or critical thinking courses should be required, as boring as they are.

And thanks for the round of applause urban, but keep in mind that more important that cutting any one person down was poking fun at the 'logic' of dice complaint threads. I am glad someone took the time to read that post I spent way too long writing

Back on topic. I am in an unofficial intra clan 3v3 tournament currently, and my dice suck. However, my dice are good in my odd 5 player freestyle flat rate game. My dice are unremarkable in my other games. Before the dice were intensity cubes, they rolled more or less the same. Therefore, I find it unmistakable that my car is blue. I also find it more frustrating to have bad dice in team games, since I feel like I am letting my team down.

[The Neon Peon]

sigh... what did I say about using logic in this thread?

Now he's gonna come back, say something to the effect of "you're an idiot," ignore most or all of what you said, and repeat something he's said before.

[RADAGA]

I wont elaborate anymore, I will just list here whenever something that should happen less than once every 200 or more rolls happens. Lets see how common it really is? Then we might show this for those who say it is random. What is the use of it being random, state-of-art, perfect when, every day, one or two of your rolls get terribly wrong.

Once in a while, lets say, four times out of 100 for something that should happen only once every 100% is ok, bad luck. But lets see...

I changed computers at the office and lost my history, but I will post the total of the appropriate type of roll, so we can measure the interval.

1) Nov., 25 - G. 5960075 R. 11 - lost 5 3x1 in a row odds = 0,4% / 3x1 count> 2269 / since last: -----

[The Neon Peon]

sigh... what did I say about using logic in this thread?

Now he's gonna come back, say something to the effect of "you're an idiot," ignore most or all of what you said, and repeat something he's said before.

2 out of 3... not bad.

[Night Strike]

I wont elaborate anymore, I will just list here whenever something that should happen less than once every 200 or more rolls happens. Lets see how common it really is? Then we might show this for those who say it is random. What is the use of it being random, state-of-art, perfect when, every day, one or two of your rolls get terribly wrong.

Once in a while, lets say, four times out of 100 for something that should happen only once every 100% is ok, bad luck. But lets see...

I changed computers at the office and lost my history, but I will post the total of the appropriate type of roll, so we can measure the interval.

1) Nov., 25 - G. 5960075 R. 11 - lost 5 3x1 in a row odds = 0,4% / 3x1 count> 2269 / since last: -----

Do you even realize that you aren't the only one who rolls on this site? I mean, seriously, this site doesn't revolve around you. Have you ever thought that while you're making all these rolls that you like to complain should only happen once every 200 rolls, that there very possibly WERE 200 rolls going on at that time?

[ubersky]

Not to be self centered, but if you look at my last post here it pretty much explains everything about "Risk" "Dice" rolls. My post is on page 43. This topic has gone on for forever with no real data other than "I think I should be winning more".

My Summary of all of the Intensity Cubes issues comes down to this:

1) The random roll system uses a internet standard number generator
2) The method of determining win/loss is not suspect
3) There are lots of people on this site, of which a small percentage are complaining about this (a handful out of over 375,000)
4) The Dice roll system services everyone on the site equally, not just one person
5) Mathematics supports the distribution of dice rolls as they are occurring

And, in my opinion, the most important

6) The Game system does not support playing the way you want to, so you must adapt your tactics accordingly.

It's that simple. You have to realize that you are not "guaranteed" anything in this game. There are some real stupid things that happen. 1v1's on small maps overwhelmingly are advantageous to the first player to start. The determination of the play order is random. Auto-placement of troops can have an effect on how well you do (lucky bonus placements, isolation, etc). Auto-placement is random (except for certain maps).

There are lots of aspects of how you play this game that will determine if you win or lose, only one of which is dice rolls. If you are betting your game life on 3v1 rolls, then you might want to look at how you play the game, and adjust accordingly. You have to adapt to different spoils situations or FoW.

After 45 pages of this stuff, I'd like to suggest this thread gets locked, and possibly archived or stickied/summarized as a cautionary tale to any wandering adventurer who wishes to test their mettle against the great Dragon of "My Dice Rolls are teh Sux, why does CC hate me?".

[ubersky]

To Lack and Devs: Do you think there is a way for you to track and display the Global dice rolls stats for the site? I know there are greasemonkey scripts to track your individual rolls, but I think it would be a good idea to expose the site members to the aggregate rolls stats (total # of rolls, total # of combats, 1v1 agg stats, 2v1, etc) for per hour, day, month, lifetime. Possibly also game stats (# games active, user logins, games finished, etc)

Not only would it be a nice exercise to show the site members how really huge this operation is, but also help put to rest the recurring "CC hates me, my dice rolls suck! something is broken" conversations.

[SuicidalSnowman]

sigh... what did I say about using logic in this thread?

Now he's gonna come back, say something to the effect of "you're an idiot," ignore most or all of what you said, and repeat something he's said before.

2 out of 3... not bad.

You can only make these predictions because you are premium...

[RADAGA]

Game 6097101>>>>

2009-12-14 15:19:56 - RADAGA: French West Africa Vs Liberia: 1;5;3 vs 6;6 / second attack 1;4;4 vs 6;6
2009-12-14 15:20:11 - RADAGA: India Vs Burma: 1;5 vs 6
2009-12-14 15:20:16 - RADAGA: second attack 6 vs 6
2009-12-14 15:20:33 - RADAGA: defence gets SIX sixes in a row.... perfect

this have a 0,00214% chance of happening.

ONE IN FIFTY THOUSAND

thats 1/50000

but I am sure you will say that this is absolutelly common, heck, you should expect to see it twice a day....

RIGHT?

[zimmah]

Game 6097101>>>>

2009-12-14 15:19:56 - RADAGA: French West Africa Vs Liberia: 1;5;3 vs 6;6 / second attack 1;4;4 vs 6;6
2009-12-14 15:20:11 - RADAGA: India Vs Burma: 1;5 vs 6
2009-12-14 15:20:16 - RADAGA: second attack 6 vs 6
2009-12-14 15:20:33 - RADAGA: defence gets SIX sixes in a row.... perfect

this have a 0,00214% chance of happening.

ONE IN FIFTY THOUSAND

thats 1/50000

but I am sure you will say that this is absolutelly common, heck, you should expect to see it twice a day....

RIGHT?

do you even have a remote idea on how many dice on average there are being thrown every minute on CC?

i'll work it out for you:

in the FAQ they state they 'consume 850,000 lines of intensity levels a day' (this was measured in 2007, so it will likely be higher right now), so let's make it 1,000,000 (one million)

one line means 5 dice (3 for attackers and 2 for defenders)

which effectively means they roll about 5 MILLION dice a day. since a day has 24 hours, this means on average 208,333 (208 thousand) dice are thrown, which means every second, on average 58 dice are thrown (this is way faster then you can throw dice, even if you have a bucket of dice, fill it, throw it, fill it again and throw it, all day long, you will still not be close to 57 a second, let alone record the process in the mainwhile)

the point is, with that many dice being thrown, this means that on average, every side is rolled nearly 10 times a second (which in effect means, every second there's about 10 6's rolled, 10 5's, 10 4's, 10 3's and 10 2's and 10 1's) but it could also mean 12 6's 8 5's, etc. cuz it's random

so basicly, anything can happen, but it just happens so fast, and so often, that even if you keep clicking the attack button all day long, and do that every 0,2seconds (i doubt anyone could even do it that fast, considering you also have to switch between thousands of games) you will still only roll a fraction of the dice being rolled.

the dice you roll on an average day, are not even 0,001% of the dice being rolled that day, so othere is no way you can even think of the dice being rigged if you only see a miniscule fraction of it. think about it, if the whole world is rolling dices all at once, and doing this 500 times in a row, eventually someone will get a streak of 100 6's, that doesn't make him any more special then you, because 6 billion other people have failed to get that streak, it just means eventually someone does get it, it's RANDOM.

(now technically the dice aren't random (i could write a whole book about why the dice arent random, but noone gives a shit, and even if they do, they would be too retarted to understand, and those who do understand, read the quotes at the end of this post, and smart people should know why this could never be actually random), but close enough to random, in fact even more random then random)

the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it

in order to have true randomness, there must be an infinite expansion of the information space

(by discarting a value, they eliminate the chance of getting the exact same value twice in a row, which is not random, because in theory, it's randomly possible to get the exact same value twice in a row (just highly unlikely) but, in effect, by discarting values, the values are in fact less 'streaky' then real dice, and therefore this only proves that everyone who is complaining about dice is wrong, even more wrong then wrong, because real dice are more streaky/unfair then the generated ones.

and that's all i'm going to say about this subject, if you still don't get it, you're just being ignorant and naive

[TheForgivenOne]

Click image to enlarge.

I feel like i may get yelled at for this. But it's sooo worth it

[max is gr8]

(by discarting a value, they eliminate the chance of getting the exact same value twice in a row, which is not random, because in theory, it's randomly possible to get the exact same value twice in a row (just highly unlikely) but, in effect, by discarting values, the values are in fact less 'streaky' then real dice, and therefore this only proves that everyone who is complaining about dice is wrong, even more wrong then wrong, because real dice are more streaky/unfair then the generated ones.

Well actually they discard the values once they are used not just for the sake of it.

[RADAGA]

(by discarting a value, they eliminate the chance of getting the exact same value twice in a row, which is not random, because in theory, it's randomly possible to get the exact same value twice in a row (just highly unlikely) but, in effect, by discarting values, the values are in fact less 'streaky' then real dice, and therefore this only proves that everyone who is complaining about dice is wrong, even more wrong then wrong, because real dice are more streaky/unfair then the generated ones.

Well actually they discard the values once they are used not just for the sake of it.

And the valuies can repeat, so even if you discard it, the next set may be exactly the same as the discarded. Or, like what did just happened AGAIN, the next 6 sets may be exactly the same .... At least concerning the "6" fr the defence dice...

On a second note: missed another SIX-in-a-row 3x1. It is weekly now.

EXTRA UPDATE 04-01, EIGHT losses in a row on a 3x1!!!! WOW! New world record!

[RADAGA]

EXTRA EXTRA, explain that> Game 5875491, round 66, I just attacked 4 lands with one on each.

every one of the attacks was preceeded by TWO losses.

So, attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT! just like that....

WEIRD pattern, indeed. Wonder why....

[SuicidalSnowman]

Yesterday, I took 5 men through one 9 stack, then two more single territories

But then I had a 9v2, clicked twice and lost 4 men. I might have kept losing, or I might have started winning, but I looked ahead to the big picture, the overall game, and stopped clicking.

Actually Radaga, to be serious for a moment, what are the odds of me getting that first set of rolls.
9v5= I win 3 v 2
7v5= I win 3 v 2
5v5= I win 3 v 2
3v5= I win 3 v 2
1v5= I win 3 v 1
Then it was
1v4= I win 3 v 1
Then it was
1v3= I win 2 v 1
Then it was
1v2= I lost 1 v 1

If you figure 6 6's in a row is 1/50,000 (is that even true?) then my dice have to be astronomically good! Like, RNG orgasm good!

[RADAGA]

Well, six sixes is "roughtly" 1 / 6^6 = 1/46.656

Chance of a double kill on a 3x2 is +/-32%, again, roughtly to win 5 in a row would be 1/3^5 = one in 243 times

As for me, again, same game, round 67, getting back the same 4 lands, I had 1loss/1 win on each. 50%-50% - again a ridiculous probability....

[RADAGA]

best of the month: Advice from a member about dice>

2010-01-19 23:08:15 - RRSGenl: dice are really random.
2010-01-19 23:08:38 - RRSGenl: U need to play conservatively till you know dice are on your side
2010-01-19 23:08:53 - RRSGenl: Then go crazy till the trend shifts back
2010-01-19 23:09:13 - RRSGenl: Then go easy again till next shift

Random now have "trends" And random alows one to "know" something about them...

[slymstar]

yes, everyone has "bad luck" rolling sometimes, but lets be serious. It determines the outcome of too many games, when it should be strategy and gameplay determining 90+%. What is really so difficult about randomly generating dice rolls, without the 1-6 random aggressiveness thrown in serving no good purpose, with realistic odds for each die being rolled? It gets frustrating and has driven me away from this game a few times now. I keep coming back and hoping there's been an improvement, but it doesn't change. It's really too bad, because it could be a great game series otherwise.

[RADAGA]

Classic:

Combat

Italy:

* 2
* 5
* 3

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 6
* 3

Combat

Italy:

* 5
* 5
* 4

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 5
* 6

Combat

Italy:

* 3
* 4
* 2

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 4
* 3

[RADAGA]

LOL! Miss 3 get 1, miss another 2, get 1 = average 2 to 7 to win a 3x1

Combat
Cairo:
* 4
* 3
* 3
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 4
Combat
Cairo:
* 4
* 2
* 5
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 5
Combat
Cairo:
* 2
* 1
* 4
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 4
Combat
Cairo:
* 5
* 5
* 6
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 5

NEXT

Combat
Nairobi:
* 2
* 3
* 3
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 6

Combat
Nairobi:
* 4
* 2
* 2
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 4

Combat
Nairobi:
* 3
* 6
* 1
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 2

[Timminz]

Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.

[RADAGA]

Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.

So if one day I get a streak of 20 failed 3x1 I cannot post about it?

[The Neon Peon]

Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.

So if one day I get a streak of 20 failed 3x1 I cannot post about it?

Basically, no. You don't post here every day, but you play once a day. And it just so happens that you only care to notify us of every bad roll you get.

Newsflash: everyone gets bad rolls. But all the rolls you are getting in between these posts balance those out and end up at average.

Download the dice analyzer plugin and post that.