Are the dice fair on this website? Dice log and analysis. vF

[mgconstruction]

To me, its not that they are fair or unfair. It's sometimes that they are so off the wall ridiculous one way or the other that it frustrates me.

When I lose 24 vs 10, yea it pisses me off and when I win 10 vs 24, I'm almost embarrassed to accept the win. This intensity cube thing has completely taken the strategy out of one vs one play. To the point that I don't want to play anymore.

[PLAYER57832]

The problem here is call STREAKNESS.

That's why people recommend to not use Auto attack (which is utter silly answer, imho)

show me a model which proves, or refutes that statement " The dice is streaky". Then, I will believe you.

The thing is streaks are normal in the random distribution. An EXACT, even bell curve would not be... and would be fully predictable.

[Frankly, my dear]

I have 2 cents to throw into your pot.

The dice on this website are not random. They are generated by a computer (random.org) and therefore must be derivatives of complex equations such as algorithms. Furthermore, the numbers have to be fetched from the batch they lay in after creation, this takes yet more interference from number crunching programs that again are based on algorithms. The true definition of random would be a single outcome derived from all possibilities with no factors weighting the outcome. This is impossible both in computers and in real life. (There is the possibility of random, just not random dice.) Outside forces are constantly weighing on dice; gravity, wind, crumbs that interfere with dice, I mean one of the two cubes could break in half on the roll and come up with a 6 and a 1, WHAT THE f*ck TO DO THEN??!?!?!?!!?!?

Bottom line. Shit happens.

Now for those of you who want to empower yourselves pay attention, for those of you who just want to keep bitching... move on.

The dice are not random and we all know this. They are hot, they are cold. We also know that there are programs communicating with one another in order to bring us our cube results. The basic equation I want you to remember is this; Input + Program Interference = Outcome. There is nothing we can do about the program fetching the numbers, but there ARE things we can do about the input. I see patterns all the time. Some games, I CANNOT win a 5v3. I know this, so I will intentionally set up 4v3 or 6v3 instead. There are times where I cannot beat 1's, so instead I auto-roll on them. FREQUENTLY this has allowed me to gain control of the results. They will end up turning around on me because I am watching for the result patterns and as I pick them up and adjust, I get closer to results I like. Even silly things such as holding down the attack key for a full second before letting it go has proven to work. One night I would let hold it down until one second ticked off and would let it go just prior to the next second ticking off the clock. I won 3v2 and 3v3 all night. I DESTROYED my opponent. I felt bad, but my method of input was perfectly in sync with winning 2-0. The next day I was losing bad with the same strategy. So instead, I was clicking really fast. Wait 1 second, click, wait 1 second, click, And that turned it on. Again, I was destroying. Another thing you can do is take a break. 15 minutes to 15 hours. The numbers are stored on a massive list and the list can get bad just like a deck can get hot in Blackjack. Let other noobs burn through the thousands of bad rolls and come back when it is hot again.

One last thing.. don't smoke copper.

[natty dread]

The dice on this website are not random. They are generated by a computer (random.org)

Random.org doesn't generate numbers by computer algorithms, they use atmospheric noise to generate random numbers. Therefore they are random.

[army of nobunaga]

I have 2 cents to throw into your pot.

The dice on this website are not random. They are generated by a computer (random.org) and therefore must be derivatives of complex equations such as algorithms. Furthermore, the numbers have to be fetched from the batch they lay in after creation, this takes yet more interference from number crunching programs that again are based on algorithms. The true definition of random would be a single outcome derived from all possibilities with no factors weighting the outcome. This is impossible both in computers and in real life. (There is the possibility of random, just not random dice.) Outside forces are constantly weighing on dice; gravity, wind, crumbs that interfere with dice, I mean one of the two cubes could break in half on the roll and come up with a 6 and a 1, WHAT THE f*ck TO DO THEN??!?!?!?!!?!?

Bottom line. Shit happens.

Now for those of you who want to empower yourselves pay attention, for those of you who just want to keep bitching... move on.

The dice are not random and we all know this. They are hot, they are cold. We also know that there are programs communicating with one another in order to bring us our cube results. The basic equation I want you to remember is this; Input + Program Interference = Outcome. There is nothing we can do about the program fetching the numbers, but there ARE things we can do about the input. I see patterns all the time. Some games, I CANNOT win a 5v3. I know this, so I will intentionally set up 4v3 or 6v3 instead. There are times where I cannot beat 1's, so instead I auto-roll on them. FREQUENTLY this has allowed me to gain control of the results. They will end up turning around on me because I am watching for the result patterns and as I pick them up and adjust, I get closer to results I like. Even silly things such as holding down the attack key for a full second before letting it go has proven to work. One night I would let hold it down until one second ticked off and would let it go just prior to the next second ticking off the clock. I won 3v2 and 3v3 all night. I DESTROYED my opponent. I felt bad, but my method of input was perfectly in sync with winning 2-0. The next day I was losing bad with the same strategy. So instead, I was clicking really fast. Wait 1 second, click, wait 1 second, click, And that turned it on. Again, I was destroying. Another thing you can do is take a break. 15 minutes to 15 hours. The numbers are stored on a massive list and the list can get bad just like a deck can get hot in Blackjack. Let other noobs burn through the thousands of bad rolls and come back when it is hot again.

One last thing.. don't smoke copper.

[stahrgazer]

The dice for a single player WILL "streak" - it's just the law of averages at work. Randomness comes into play in that you can never tell when the dice will streak your way or your opponent's, and the law of averages doesn't care if that means a streak of 'bad dice' throughout a given game or series of games, eventually offset by an "unreal" streak of wins, such as a five killing 19. For five to kill 19 requires an awful long streak of wins (9 double wins and a single win without losses); because it's just one turn, it doesn't appear to offset a string of 9 turns taken with all double losses, but it does.

But to truly figure out odds will take far more than 500 rolls. You'd have to figure out how many dicerolls occur on a given day, and do that many, then do that many several times to really set appropriate stats for a typical day on CC.

[Frankly, my dear]

The dice on this website are not random. They are generated by a computer (random.org)

Random.org doesn't generate numbers by computer algorithms, they use atmospheric noise to generate random numbers. Therefore they are random.

So the atmospheric noise inputs the data itself? I think not. It still takes equipment + firmware in order to analyze the data. This is where I think it is hilarious that random.org is even slightly respected in the field of random number production. No matter where you attempt to farm your data from (here at dice.org we monitor the bowels of space and retrieve numbers that are TRUELY random. Yes, computers compile the data but no worries there!) you are not going to avoid the fact that a PROGRAM/COMPUTER is going to have to sort and compile. This requires algorithms. Sorry.

[natty dread]

Think of atmospheric noise as a wave signal, with noise waveform. As you (should) know, natural noise waveforms are sequences of random amplitude.

Now when this noise signal is ran through an ADC and sampled at X bitrate, then each sample gives you X bits of random numbers.

It's actually quite simple. No computer algorithm required to sample static noise. So I don't really see your point.

[Frankly, my dear]

Think of atmospheric noise as a wave signal, with noise waveform. As you (should) know, natural noise waveforms are sequences of random amplitude.

Now when this noise signal is ran through an ADC and sampled at X bitrate, then each sample gives you X bits of random numbers.

It's actually quite simple. No computer algorithm required to sample static noise. So I don't really see your point.

So how are these numbers brought from reality to a spreadsheet? How are they organized on the sheet? When you click the attack button, what decides which column from the sheet is fetched to give you your results? Waive noise? No. AL-GO-RITH-M

Your random source could be the acid chains found in your average urine stream, it does not make a difference, the fact is the numbers are stored in rows and columns and must be fetched by a program. This decision is not made by random. Also, the number set you get when measuring these waves is not 1-6. There must be filtration or alteration of the set in order to get only numbers that apply to the 6 sided cube. The more you look into it, the less and less it resembles what it claims to be.

[army of nobunaga]

He doesn't have a point Dread. While atmospheric noise isn't perfectly random, Its completely impossible to predict and after reading your newsletter article, I went to the site and read up on it. The dice are random. Sorry that statement pisses people off so much. I did a bell curve test basically for myself here because I wanted to see for myself, with an open mind , if the dice were rolling correct.I did not really expect to change a persons mind. Some people, well a lot, have a deep seeded "the world is against me" issue that they reflect onto everyday things... i.e dice.

That is why this thread and your statement pisses off people. Dont f*ck with the way a person views the world. It just doesnt come to much. Only death changes what their upbringing programed into their mind, and that comes soon enough.

[natty dread]

Fair enough nobu. I'll just let them believe what they wish.

Ps. random numbers are not stored in "rows and columns", binary files don't have "rows and columns" they have a 1-dimensional string of bits.

[mgconstruction]

He doesn't have a point Dread. While atmospheric noise isn't perfectly random, Its completely impossible to predict and after reading your newsletter article, I went to the site and read up on it. The dice are random. Sorry that statement pisses people off so much. I did a bell curve test basically for myself here because I wanted to see for myself, with an open mind , if the dice were rolling correct.I did not really expect to change a persons mind. Some people, well a lot, have a deep seeded "the world is against me" issue that they reflect onto everyday things... i.e dice.

That is why this thread and your statement pisses off people. Dont f*ck with the way a person views the world. It just doesnt come to much. Only death changes what their upbringing programed into their mind, and that comes soon enough.

Exactly, lets quit calling them random & start calling the unpredictable

[nikola_milicki]

CC dice are the biggest fail internet has ever seen!

sick of losing 8vs3 and more and winning shit like 9vs10 clean, not to mention losing 4, or 5 or w/e vs1 on every important turn cuz defense rolls 3,4 and more 6s mixed with an occasional 5.........GIMME A FUKING BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Such extremity shud not and can not happen bcuz its simply ridiculous and unrealistic, I dont know how good dice programs can get but this one is nothing but a BIG FAT FAIL!!!!
And seriously all u ppl who think dice are ok cuz they even out if u look at like 1000 or w/e rolls are naive fools who cant see their games are being flushed down the toilet on daily basis cuz they lose shit like 8vs3 or worse on too many important turns! Of course Im not saying dice dont need to be fair on every attack, just that nobody gives a damn if u lose 10 killing 4 attacking last enemy land on the map

Are there no other programs that could be used but this goddamn random.org BS?????????

[Tanel]

I never thought there are so many people who don't understand what randon odds mean. This whole "streak" issue kind of reminds me of gamblers logic. "Only this mashine at the corner wins" or "Today is my lucky day" and yet again "Today the cards are against me, I'd better come back tomorrow"

[BigBallinStalin]

.....Fitz... its leaving a bad taste in my mouth too =D

apparantly that's what all the girls say to him.

if that's the case, then he should eat more fruit and less beef/chicken.

[nikola_milicki]

.....Fitz... its leaving a bad taste in my mouth too =D

apparantly that's what all the girls say to him.

if that's the case, then he should eat more fruit and less beef/chicken.

pineapple juice, trust me

[RADAGA]

To me, its not that they are fair or unfair. It's sometimes that they are so off the wall ridiculous one way or the other that it frustrates me.

When I lose 24 vs 10, yea it pisses me off and when I win 10 vs 24, I'm almost embarrassed to accept the win. This intensity cube thing has completely taken the strategy out of one vs one play. To the point that I don't want to play anymore.

I have been saying this for years now.

twenty thousand sixes in a row, followed by 20.000 ones, twos, threes, fours and fives, in sequence, make a perfect average and uniform distribuition with a large universe of 120.000 samples.

But it is FAR from satisfying...

[Chuuuuck]

You all are retarded. You complain about extreme rolls, but if you go play the actual board game, which I do often, then you will realize the same extreme rolls happen each and every game. I lose 10 armies to a 2 or an 8vs3 as you mention, regularly in the game. One dice roll has no clue what happened on the previous roll just like random.org has no clue what numbers it fed you for the previous roll. When talking about streaks, 10-20 rolls is not considered a streak in the big picture. It is considered normal for their to be a big winner or big loser. Now if you lost 1,000 armies to 10-20, then I would start worrying. Until that happens, give me a break.

[pmchugh]

There is nothing we can do about the program fetching the numbers, but there ARE things we can do about the input. I see patterns all the time. Some games, I CANNOT win a 5v3. I know this, so I will intentionally set up 4v3 or 6v3 instead. There are times where I cannot beat 1's, so instead I auto-roll on them. FREQUENTLY this has allowed me to gain control of the results. They will end up turning around on me because I am watching for the result patterns and as I pick them up and adjust, I get closer to results I like. Even silly things such as holding down the attack key for a full second before letting it go has proven to work. One night I would let hold it down until one second ticked off and would let it go just prior to the next second ticking off the clock. I won 3v2 and 3v3 all night. I DESTROYED my opponent. I felt bad, but my method of input was perfectly in sync with winning 2-0. The next day I was losing bad with the same strategy. So instead, I was clicking really fast. Wait 1 second, click, wait 1 second, click, And that turned it on. Again, I was destroying. Another thing you can do is take a break. 15 minutes to 15 hours. The numbers are stored on a massive list and the list can get bad just like a deck can get hot in Blackjack. Let other noobs burn through the thousands of bad rolls and come back when it is hot again.

Surely your taking the piss? It returns a list of numbers so attacking with a 5 or 4/6 makes no difference at all, and please tell me you don't think the "algorithm" takes into account how long you hold down the mouse button in whether to give you 6's or 1's

[elfish_lad]

The word is "fair." Meaning: free from bias or dishonesty. So, hell yes. They piss us all off equally without showing the least be of favoritism.

Are you asking if the are "real?" Meaning: genuine; not counterfeit, not artificial, nor an imitation but rather authentic? Hell no. They are generated after all. As others have meantioned before me.

E.

[jimboston]

Definition of the term "Fair"... as used by most players on this site.
(Myself included?)

Fair - When I win.

Unfair - When I lose.

End of "are the dice fair" discussion.

[RADAGA]

Once again, for three rounds trying to get a card...

Tried a 10x4 - no avail

tried a 5x1 - no avail

tried a 4x2 - no avail

all against the same (high ranking, paying) opponent, in the same game. Boring.

Oh, and in a 10x5 right now, had to stop at 3x2

[Falkomagno]

Maybe, streakness is part of the random arrangement, and we don't deal good with that. It's the same feeling of heard the same songs, even if the player is in shuffle, and you have more than 5000 songs in the playlist. Everyday at least a couple of times, a couple of song has been played twice, even three times....weird, and true.

In the other hand, people who thinks that everything is perfect because the amounts of 6,5,4,3,2, and 1 tend to be equal in long term, are neglecting the issue, that's is, the streaks

[AndyDufresne]

Check out Chipv's streakiness addition to the Dice Analyzer plugin.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114183&view=unread#unread
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=114413


--Andy

[Doc_Brown]

Have any of you ever played the board game "Settlers of Catan?" I used to play it all the time (as in an average of 3-4 games per week for several months) with a group of friends. That's another dice-based game in which you gather resources based on your positioning on the board relative to various tiles with the numbers 2-12 (excluding 7) assigned to them. In theory, 6s and 8s were the best tiles control. In reality, some games the person sitting on the 10s and 11s would keep getting his numbers rolled and we'd go round after round without a single 8 ever showing up (which was really frustrating for the guys sitting on the 8s!). But of course, we'd play the next game and see a proper share of 10s while 5s became really hot. Streakiness is perfectly normal. In fact, some analysis tools used to determine whether data is based on real sampling as opposed to fabricated values (with particular application to checking for tampering in vote tabulation) specifically checks for streaks. Too low an incidence of streaks is evidence of tampering.