Printing Money vs Honest Value

[nietzsche]

I was thinking about the gold thing the other day, and remembered that when I was a child I used to have 3 pieces of jewelry, (men jewelry, I don't now the names, 2 for the wrist and 1 for the neck, and yes, it's not odd, when there wasn't such a security crisis in Mexico people used to use jewelry including men). Those pieces I gave to my grandma when I was going to a concert with my cousins, departing from grandma's house.

I forgot about those, everybody did I guess, but today I went where grandma used to live and asked an aunt about those pieces, and yes they were in grandma's old nightstand.

I weighed them, they are 54 grams in total, 14k.

Thanks PhatScotty! Now I have around 1100dls extra!

[Baron Von PWN]

New 2011 Canadian Silver Wolf.

Ahh the Mint! That place makes the Government 50-60 million dollars a year. Good times.

[BigBallinStalin]

I was reading some article from Wall Street Journal of the NY Times talking about how the Fed is going increase the money supply and cause minor inflation.

How would rising prices coupled with lower purchasing parity help the nation overall?

[Phatscotty]

I was reading some article from Wall Street Journal of the NY Times talking about how the Fed is going increase the money supply and cause minor inflation.

How would rising prices coupled with lower purchasing parity help the nation overall?

it wouldnt help the consumers/citizens. it would only help the politicians make there numbers look more acceptable on paper, and on the backs of the citizens.

When Chavez inflated/devalued by 40% a few months back, it was enforced with military on the corners making sure nobody raised their prices...We are different here, but you can see the kind of game that is being played, and it's a shell game

[Phatscotty]

I was thinking about the gold thing the other day, and remember that when I was a child I used to have 3 pieces of jewelry, (men jewelry, I don't now the names, 2 for the wrist and 1 for the neck, and yes, it's not odd, when there wasn't such a security crisis in Mexico people used to use jewelry including men). Those pieces I gave to my grandma when I was going to a concert with my cousins, departing from grandma's house.

I forgot about those, everybody did I guess, but today I went where grandma used to live and asked an aunt about those pieces, and yes they where in grandma's old nightstand.

I weighed them, they are 54 grams in total, 14k.

Thanks PhatScotty! Now I have around 1100dls extra!

Mission accomplished buddy

I used to go on about precious metals a lot more than I do now. I had a theory that...."If only everybody did as Phatscotty said, there would not be a recession" Everybody would be better off, more stable, more efficient, and the price of gold would be higher, and more people could say they got in at $300. Americans balance sheets would be "balanced" and people would not have been defaulting on their mortgages 2 weeks after they got laid off. Here is my first post from my old blog..

Did You Hedge Your Home With Gold?

Home Sales Slide for 5th straight month

Even the sunniest of optimists have to be a tad concerned over the direction of the U.S. housing market.

Especially after the National Association of Realtors announced that pending sales of existing homes slid for the fifth straight month.

The NAR reports that its index for pending sales was down 1.1% in January, to 116.3. The Association notes that the figure was 4.8% below January of 2005. That rate, the NAR adds, was lower than the average monthly decline of 3% that economists have seen in the last four months of 2005.
Posted by The Golden Child in 20:02:21 | Permalink | No Comments »
Tuesday, February 28, 2006

I called the top here, on record

Uh Oh! It’s here…
Supply Grows, Sales slow for Minneapolis real-estate. The October housing supply rate for the 13 county Twin Cities Area is 5.1 months, technically, a contracting market, anything under 5 months is considered growing. Homes over 1 million dollars on average stay for sale for over 14 months now, how many price-reductions must those home-owners suffer? Even the cheapest houses have increased 31% in time on the market in just the last 6 months alone. Real Estate lending at banks is down 3000% in 2 months nationwide. September inflation totals registered their highest gain in 25 years! might consider buying gold…. Real estate supply has grown in all ranges. Active home for sale listings shows a 30% gain. Rates are double what they were 3 years ago. Add rising gas prices, exponentially growing personal and corporate bankruptcy filings, 25 year high inflation numbers, double minimum credit cards payments, nation wide wage decreases, 70% higher heating bills, a tehcnically crashed currency, A derivative bomb explosion at Refco, which will start the daisy chain effect Warren Buffet (republican) has warned of, a negative national savings rate (-.7%) record over record trade, budget, and federal deficits, and you have a real estate crash.
Posted by The Golden Child in 00:11:18 | Permalink | No Comments »
Thursday, October 13, 2005

[Johnny Rockets]

New 2011 Canadian Silver Wolf.

Ahh the Mint! That place makes the Government 50-60 million dollars a year. Good times.

If anyone ever is passing though Winnipeg, take a few hours and go through a tour of the Royal Mint here. Time well spent.



http://www.mint.ca/


Yo Phatty, any prediction on when gold might peak before the spring of 2011?


JR

[tzor]

I was reading some article from Wall Street Journal of the NY Times talking about how the Fed is going increase the money supply and cause minor inflation.

How would rising prices coupled with lower purchasing parity help the nation overall?

There is a tendency to think linearly about the economy, the formulas are more complex than that. Inflation sucks, one might call it a "hidden tax" on everyone's equity. But Deflation is far worse because it leads quickly to catastrophic economic collapse. (If people think they can wait and things will be cheaper, then people who need to sell their goods will become more desperate and lower their prices even more encouraging people not to buy expecting it to go even lower. Thus the entire economic system comes to a crashing halt.) As a result, minor inflation is considered a “hedge” against deflation.

[Metsfanmax]

This thread amuses me. OP says that we have to avoid relying on the dollar, and that we should invest in things with real value.

And how does one prove that gold has real value? By showing how much it's worth in dollars ;P

[tzor]

This thread amuses me. OP says that we have to avoid relying on the dollar, and that we should invest in things with real value.

And how does one prove that gold has real value? By showing how much it's worth in dollars ;P

I think the point of the OP is that the number of "dollars" in the world is variable (they can just make more) while the amount of gold in the world is relatively fixed (although rising at a slowly decreasing rate as mining uncovers more of the stuff). It's the same reason why "limited prints" are more valuable than unlimited prints.

Everything is based on supply and demand. Fixing the supply does give some peace of mind, but you still have a variable demand.

Most naitons have given up on the "gold" standard. They are into investing into the nulcear weapon standard.

[Metsfanmax]

This thread amuses me. OP says that we have to avoid relying on the dollar, and that we should invest in things with real value.

And how does one prove that gold has real value? By showing how much it's worth in dollars ;P

I think the point of the OP is that the number of "dollars" in the world is variable (they can just make more) while the amount of gold in the world is relatively fixed (although rising at a slowly decreasing rate as mining uncovers more of the stuff). It's the same reason why "limited prints" are more valuable than unlimited prints.

Everything is based on supply and demand. Fixing the supply does give some peace of mind, but you still have a variable demand.

Most naitons have given up on the "gold" standard. They are into investing into the nulcear weapon standard.

But I don't own any gold. Does that mean I'm broke?

[tzor]

But I don't own any gold.

And I don't own any nuclear weapons.

[notyou2]

But I don't own any gold.

And I don't own any nuclear weapons.

That must mean you are morally bankrupt?

[BigBallinStalin]

I was reading some article from Wall Street Journal of the NY Times talking about how the Fed is going increase the money supply and cause minor inflation.

How would rising prices coupled with lower purchasing parity help the nation overall?

There is a tendency to think linearly about the economy, the formulas are more complex than that. Inflation sucks, one might call it a "hidden tax" on everyone's equity. But Deflation is far worse because it leads quickly to catastrophic economic collapse. (If people think they can wait and things will be cheaper, then people who need to sell their goods will become more desperate and lower their prices even more encouraging people not to buy expecting it to go even lower. Thus the entire economic system comes to a crashing halt.) As a result, minor inflation is considered a “hedge” against deflation.

Well, what makes them think that deflation will occur? I haven't noticed a decrease in prices on anything within the past 10 years--especially recently. Everything has been going up and up, so why increase prices even more?

And, how would a lower purchasing parity improve the nation's lot overall?

[tzor]

Well, what makes them think that deflation will occur? I haven't noticed a decrease in prices on anything within the past 10 years--especially recently. Everything has been going up and up, so why increase prices even more?

You know, for a person with the words "SERIOUSLY GUYS" on your icon, you would think you were at least smart enough to use Google. There's a "NEWS" option on the page. Click on it and type "deflation." Then read and learn. (Or you could actually watch a news program from time to time. I highly reccomend NPR.)

Deflation, Inflation and the US Fed
Fed's Deflation Worries Leave Scope For Quantitative Easing
US Stocks Lower On Fed Deflation Concerns, Monetary Easing
Gold hits record after Fed raises deflation specter

[BigBallinStalin]

Well, what makes them think that deflation will occur? I haven't noticed a decrease in prices on anything within the past 10 years--especially recently. Everything has been going up and up, so why increase prices even more?

You know, for a person with the words "SERIOUSLY GUYS" on your icon, you would think you were at least smart enough to use Google. There's a "NEWS" option on the page. Click on it and type "deflation." Then read and learn. (Or you could actually watch a news program from time to time. I highly reccomend NPR.)

Deflation, Inflation and the US Fed
Fed's Deflation Worries Leave Scope For Quantitative Easing
US Stocks Lower On Fed Deflation Concerns, Monetary Easing
Gold hits record after Fed raises deflation specter

Are you seriously suggesting that there's a good chance deflation will incur? If so, how likely will deflation occur without the Fed increasing the money supply?

I've got plenty of questions after reading those articles, but wait! is it worth dealing with your pretentious, condescending attitude, while actually not getting any insight from you directly?

The reason why I ask questions to people directly is because I assume they know something I don't, and it saves me time from googling everything. Honestly, there's no need for your shitty attitude. If it helps, should I apologize on your behalf because your life has become bitter and you feel this desire to belittle people?

[tzor]

Are you seriously suggesting that there's a good chance deflation will incur? If so, how likely will deflation occur without the Fed increasing the money supply?

No, I am saying that the Fed has seriously considered worrying about it a tad, given the fact that they have already pushed the interest rate down to zero, printing money is the only tool they have left in their toolbox, so they have been considering it.

I think there is a slight chance. The chance is made less by the fact that the tipping point would come after the election which could cause the tipping point not to occur. If we have a major Christmas bust this season it could easily lead to a deflation cycle.

[tzor]

The reason why I ask questions to people directly is because I assume they know something I don't, and it saves me time from googling everything. Honestly, there's no need for your shitty attitude. If it helps, should I apologize on your behalf because your life has become bitter and you feel this desire to belittle people?

OK, sometimes it comes across as a "I'm better than you" attitide. Limitations of a non verbal channel of communication impared medium, perhaps, plus having a sneering icon doesn't help. But seriously, I've been hearing about this non stop from NPR.

[nietzsche]

The same opinion here about gold. I've never understood it's value. Yet the other day I was paying attention to pretty things made with gold and they have some characteristic beauty. I tried to imagine what other metal would look that nice in jewelry and I could not.

Anyway, I guess a great part of the value of the dollar is the warfare superiority of the US. THat's why the US should attack China right away, before it's too late.

Be serious now. I think that the value on the dollar and another currencies is totally dependent on the confidence of the people, and the American people is losing it's confidence in America. Besides the real state crisis, I believe it has some other ingredients that were already in the mix, and joined the recipe. Those ingredients were/are the environmental crisis, the personal values crisis, the terrorism crisis. Allow me to be that speculative.

[BigBallinStalin]

The reason why I ask questions to people directly is because I assume they know something I don't, and it saves me time from googling everything. Honestly, there's no need for your shitty attitude. If it helps, should I apologize on your behalf because your life has become bitter and you feel this desire to belittle people?

OK, sometimes it comes across as a "I'm better than you" attitide. Limitations of a non verbal channel of communication impared medium, perhaps, plus having a sneering icon doesn't help. But seriously, I've been hearing about this non stop from NPR.

Seriously, tzor? [/lulz]

By the way, did you hear about how Chiquita was knowingly funding two terrorist organizations?

[Phatscotty]

New 2011 Canadian Silver Wolf.

Ahh the Mint! That place makes the Government 50-60 million dollars a year. Good times.

If anyone ever is passing though Winnipeg, take a few hours and go through a tour of the Royal Mint here. Time well spent.



http://www.mint.ca/




Yo Phatty, any prediction on when gold might peak before the spring of 2011?


JR

not when, but where. 1650. If Iran gets nukes, sooner. If Europe being shittier than America continues to be all it takes for people to choose US for investment, then later.

[Phatscotty]

This thread amuses me. OP says that we have to avoid relying on the dollar, and that we should invest in things with real value.

And how does one prove that gold has real value? By showing how much it's worth in dollars ;P

whoa whoa whoa. That is not what I said as that is kind of silly. Only for awareness. Cmon man, how often to you get to see a chart of the dollar?

as for proof, is a 5,000 year track record of holding monetary value good enough?

[Phatscotty]

Well, what makes them think that deflation will occur? I haven't noticed a decrease in prices on anything within the past 10 years--especially recently. Everything has been going up and up, so why increase prices even more?

You know, for a person with the words "SERIOUSLY GUYS" on your icon, you would think you were at least smart enough to use Google. There's a "NEWS" option on the page. Click on it and type "deflation." Then read and learn. (Or you could actually watch a news program from time to time. I highly reccomend NPR.)

Deflation, Inflation and the US Fed
Fed's Deflation Worries Leave Scope For Quantitative Easing
US Stocks Lower On Fed Deflation Concerns, Monetary Easing
Gold hits record after Fed raises deflation specter

Are you seriously suggesting that there's a good chance deflation will incur? If so, how likely will deflation occur without the Fed increasing the money supply?

I've got plenty of questions after reading those articles, but wait! is it worth dealing with your pretentious, condescending attitude, while actually not getting any insight from you directly?

The reason why I ask questions to people directly is because I assume they know something I don't, and it saves me time from googling everything. Honestly, there's no need for your shitty attitude. If it helps, should I apologize on your behalf because your life has become bitter and you feel this desire to belittle people?

statistically, at least going back 4-5 centuries, deflation is to be expected 5% of the time. I have a legitimate fear of deflation, although it will take immense microscoping to filter through the bullshit they hide it with. As for the speculation, we are going to have to wing it pretty much. We have ideas of how we battled deflation before, but that was 70 something years ago. Deflation is it's own monster. We can't figure it out until we get to see what it looks like. All we know for sure is that it is not good.

Hey, ever heard of Kondratiev?

Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are described as sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern capitalist world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of relatively slow growth. Unlike the short-term business cycle which in various forms has been familiar since the nineteenth century, the long wave of this theory does not belong within current orthodox economics and is sometimes categorized as part of heterodox economics (a catch-all term for alternative ideas to economic ideologies in force).

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade. Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913. However, the work of de Wolff and van Gelderen has only recently been translated from Dutch to reach a wider audience.

Kondratiev was a Russian economist, but his economic conclusions were disliked by the Soviet leadership and upon their release he was quickly dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in the Soviet Union in 1928. His conclusions were seen as a criticism of Stalin's intentions for the Soviet economy: as a result he was sentenced to the Soviet Gulag and later received the death penalty in 1938.

Later, in Business Cycles (1939), Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves", in honor of the economist who first noticed them. In the 1950s, French economist François Simiand proposed naming the ascendant period of the cycle "Phase A" and the downward period "Phase B". Some market commentators divide the Kondratiev wave into four 'seasons', namely, the Kondratiev Spring (improvement or plateau) and Summer (acceleration or prosperity) of the ascendant period and the Kondratiev Fall (recession or plateau) and Winter (acceleration or depression) of the downward period.

[Phatscotty]

The same opinion here about gold. I've never understood it's value. Yet the other day I was paying attention to pretty things made with gold and they have some characteristic beauty. I tried to imagine what other metal would look that nice in jewelry and I could not.

Anyway, I guess a great part of the value of the dollar is the warfare superiority of the US. THat's why the US should attack China right away, before it's too late.

Be serious now. I think that the value on the dollar and another currencies is totally dependent on the confidence of the people, and the American people is losing it's confidence in America. Besides the real state crisis, I believe it has some other ingredients that were already in the mix, and joined the recipe. Those ingredients were/are the environmental crisis, the personal values crisis, the terrorism crisis. Allow me to be that speculative.

major factors in deciding the value of the dollar. The triple deficits: budget, trade, federal. basically, Americas balance sheet, and it aint too balanced

[Phatscotty]

We are at 78.90 today, the last and final test will be at 78.53, which could easily happen in 1 hour tommorow.

I am not happy this is happening, I am only trying to see what is happening and act accordingly. The President and The Congress have the debt-pedal to the metal, and all I see are one way signs with no red flags to suggest anything other than we are going to spend more.

One thing I can guarantee, if the Republicans take the house, the dollar will get a nice bump within 3 days after elections, if only on the appearance. I am glad to see that the American People are standing up for our currency. If we take Congress from Obama on a strong fiscal discipline platform and actually get something done there, countries around the world will raise an eyebrow and think to themselves "America is finally going to get it's shit together. I want some of that action"

Then again, if we could get other countries to buy our bonds in the quantity that we need to sell them, the Federal Reserve would not have to be stepping in to buy the leftovers and inflate the money supply through Quantative Easing. If that were the case, this thread would not exist...

My Dear Friends,

We cannot take pleasure in the things that have caused gold to move above $1300. However, going forward we can take both pride and comfort in the fact that we have secured a solid foundation for our families. $1650 can now be seen over a very near horizon.

This has been an important week and day for you and me in the bush of Africa. I am writing to you from an office made from a shipping container with A/C, WIFI and all kinds of technical equipment. I miss the good folk who joined us here. We had fun at an ongoing fireside seminar and great camaraderie. For me today will remain a milestone in my life, my work of eight years and total business career.

My reward is your security going forward.

[BigBallinStalin]

statistically, at least going back 4-5 centuries, deflation is to be expected 5% of the time. I have a legitimate fear of deflation, although it will take immense microscoping to filter through the bullshit they hide it with. As for the speculation, we are going to have to wing it pretty much. We have ideas of how we battled deflation before, but that was 70 something years ago. Deflation is it's own monster. We can't figure it out until we get to see what it looks like. All we know for sure is that it is not good.

Hey, ever heard of Kondratiev?

No wonder they're so worried, and perhaps that explains why they're so willing to cause inflation ahead of time to try to cancel out expected deflation, but there's plenty of room to mess things up.

I've heard of K-waves in this economics book about how countries progress from "less developed" to "highly developed." It was called something like The Six Steps Towards Economic Development, or something like that.

My problem with K-waves is that they've reached that wavelength by averaging past incidents, but since its based on this seemingly arbitrary pattern, how can one use k-waves to make reliable expectations? The k-wave cycle has like a 20 year +/-... so it seems to be a bit unreliable.