Dice Psychology

[Anatolia]

Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.

A

[Fewnix]

BANG ON!!!!!

Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.

A

[skychaser]

Yep. It's like a poker table, if you win by bad beats so often that does mean you're playing it bad.
But it's still frustrating however if you play good then the luck does not favor you that often.

[ManBungalow]

And the human mind hasn't evolved to understand numbers.

Which kinda goes without saying really.

[Nola_Lifer]

It is an irrational universe. Stop trying to rationalize it.

[ZeekLTK]

It just sucks because, as you mentioned, it's so rare - so it has such a big influence on the game because it's generally a 1-time deal (as far as individual games go).

When it happens, it happens to you, and only you, and you can't expect that it will "even out" and happen to someone else during the same game, because that's just not likely.

[Viceroy63]

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

This is a good post. And I actually do attacks like this all the time and have had more than my fair share of success. It is not so rare a thing for me when I take out 9, 11 or even more with just 4 or 5 troops. Considering of course that one should not be able to win in the first place. The thing is that I only do this with 4 or 5 troops using the auto-assault or "Right Click" so that should I lose I only lose 2 troops and still keep at least a couple of troops on that region for defense.

But you are right! Miracles like that do happen more often then they should. Just like when you lose an assault having 13 troops against 4 or 5 defending troops, also happen more often then they should. That is why one's attacks should also have a plan "B" of stopping the assaults in time and preparing for the next round.

[Arama86n]

Your on the right track mate. Maybe what you say is part of, or IS the issue.
Personally I believe it's a slightly different issue. People seem to have a tendency to remember the bad dice more, especially when it's an important turn. They'll forget the fantastic dice they got in a cleanup stage of a game because they got horrible dice in two turns in two games where they desperately needed it. This is the only upside to having a larger game-count in my opinion. with a very low game count you can easily get horrid dice in 2-5 turns in a row and be left with a foul taste in your mouth. Those with a large game count SHOULD see the dice evening out on a daily basis.
Then again there are always those that complain, and as I've always said, there is an age old invention called Chess, if you can't handle dice/drop go try it, But it might not suit everyone, as there is no scapegoat when one loses and that is an ego crusher isn't it, so much more comfortable with dice to blame

In general I think your on the right track though, "bad dice" is due to psychology.

[Gamefreakguy]

Very interesting point, I never considered the hesitancy to attack low vs high numbers affecting how we evaluated our luck, but it's a good point. Of course, as mentioned, remembering the negatives is another contributing factor.

I think another aspect of that is that we feel we "should" win battles that are weighted on our side, and it hurts when we don't get what we feel we deserve. But on the flip side, we take for granted the undeserved victories because we are always future-oriented to see what we deserve next instead of appreciating what we achieved when we shouldn't have.

[Viceroy63]

This is my current Luck statistic just now.

Can anyone explain this to me? Please. Thanks.

I get the gist of it but not really the whole point.

One question that I have is that, do 37% of "All Opponents" are luckier than me?

[Just_essence]

No, it's just the percentage above (luckier) or below (unluckier) the average roll, a 3.50.

[macbone]

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.

[HardAttack]

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.

when did you do that ?

[Viceroy63]

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.

And perhaps if you had 4v9 then you would have been completely successful.

[HardAttack]

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.

And perhaps if you had 4v9 then you would have been completely successful.

this/your signature/ only shows 8 evolution steps from the first to now...
i wonder what it looked like before 8 steps

[Viceroy63]

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.

And perhaps if you had 4v9 then you would have been completely successful.

this/your signature/ only shows 8 evolution steps from the first to now...
i wonder what it looked like before 8 steps

[This is a joke. Please no one get offended ]

Well, first you have your average monkey. That's the first one with the tail. Then you have an Orangutan "Clive" followed by Nape, the Ape which leads us to "Magilla" Gorilla. That's when Evolution really began to pick up with the Homo's; First you have the "Cave man" (Homo Hobbitus), They lived in caves or holes in the grounds. They are mostly all found living in what is known today as< "the Shire" and it is said that a great wizard "Gendalf the grey" protects these so called shirefolks. Next we have Cromagnum man or as they have been more commonly known in the hit television series, Sliders, as Cromags "Homo Portalis." Apparently this species did not become extinct but simply slid through some kind of dimensional portal gateway and were unable to get back to this earth. It is reported that they are happily conquering the earth's of other dimension's and given enough time will figure out which earth is ours and come to conquer us as well.

Then we have, Neanderthal man or Neo-Man, "Homo-Erectus." It is said that they hung around on the planet for some 30,000 years or so about 10,000 years ago and yet in all that time never managed to really create anything greater than cave art (Today we call it Grafiti) and simple tools like a Rock they found and used as a hammer to kill off the bugs eating off of their foods. They did not make any trains, planes or automobiles. No cellphone technology in fact no technology of any kind for 30,000 years. Some speculate that they were waiting for something? They nearly wipe out the roach species population and almost brought them to extinction but then mysteriously became extinct themselves. For a species as intelligent as the Neanderthals, with all of their art and tools, and who lived on the planet for as long as they did, they surely did not accomplish much to be proud of.

And finally we have Modern Man or "Homo Stupidus." This species in only 6,000 years of recorded history on the planet from a very humble beginning spread to a population so far of almost 8 Billion People on the planet. They've created great cultures and civilizations and such technology as to get high into earth's orbit into outer space. Or just get high! Period. After surviving a world wide flood about 44 hundred years ago, they vowed to have so much sex that should the species ever be wiped out, that it would have been worth it to die while having sex. And yet they created the atomic bomb and MAD "Mutually Assured Destruction" and threatened their own existence on the planet that they claim to love so much and make so much love in. For an intelligent species they prefer to live in ignorance of the truth and to wallow in the shallows of lies and deception.

All kinds of deceptions and all kinds of lies. This species does not discriminate when it come to lies and deception or who says them, if you have a lie to tell we'll vote you into the presidency of the United States of America damn it. It just better be a damn good lie like bringing our army boys home from Iraq or health care reform or some shit like that. And the biggest lie around which an entire industry of science is base upon is the lie known as, "The Theory of Evolution!" Wow! That man descended from apes. Oh, not modern apes, just a form of common ancestry which we all share together and that we have yet to find any evidence of. As if to say, There is nothing special about man, we are just stupid animals who simply manage to be smart enough and stupid enough, both at the same time.

In only 6,000 years we have accomplished much shame to our name. But of all the species mentioned, the Cromags are the best Risk players of all.

[HardAttack]

lololol;

very welldone