saxitoxin wrote:jusplay4fun wrote:
1) Trump supporters seem under-counted in Polls; 2016 was a HUGE surprise for many professional pollsters.
I won't be surprised in a 2016/2020 repeat, but I'm not expecting it. The reason I say that is that the 2016/2020 issues were based on the supposed reluctance of Trump supporters to respond to pollsters. I have a feeling that most have corrected for that, otherwise, we wouldn't have seen Biden doing so badly earlier in the summer.
I think this bad assessment of Biden in the Polls in the early Summer is more a matter how bad, mentally and physically, Biden is. Most of the liberal-Democrat world FINALLY realized it after the first debate between Trump and Biden in 2024. I think those of us here who actually follow politics KNEW this in 2020 and did not need the Debate to confirm that assessment.
There may have been corrections, but I am still not convinced that the reluctance of many Trump supporters to publicly admit this has been correctly accounted for in these "new and improved" polls.
https://www.newsweek.com/final-new-york ... ns-1979329
The 2016 misfire caused many pollsters to adjust the way they weighed different demographics in an effort to better capture the "Trump effect" in polling. However, those changes proved not as effective as pollsters had hoped.
The 2020 Siena College poll found Joe Biden to have a nine-point national advantage over Trump among likely voters. Biden went on to win with a 4.5-point gap, only half of what the polling had measured.
In the 2020 battleground polling released on November 1 of that year, Siena College found Biden ahead by six points in Arizona, three points in Florida, six points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Wisconsin.
Biden did end up winning Arizona despite wider expectations of a Trump victory, but only sneaking the win with a .3-point win—a mere 10,500 votes, roughly. Trump handily won Florida by 3.5 points, and Biden did take back Pennsylvania, but again only with a slight gap of around 1.16 points.
Biden also did end up taking Wisconsin, but by a much slighter .63-point gap.
Polling has suffered a significant reputational hit over the past two elections, with polling indicating that Clinton would beat Trump in 2016 and that Biden had a greater advantage than he ended up winning in 2020.
"While the polls aren't so precise that you can trust they'll nail a tight election, you can't assume that the polls will badly err again, either, as they did in 2016 or 2020," Cohn, chief political analyst for the Times, wrote Friday in a piece published in Upshot.
Both of those previous polls underestimated Trump's support, with many finding in 2016 that his supporters were less likely to voice their support for the highly controversial candidate.
Cohn highlighted "major methodological changes" in polling data, noting that "many of the worst-performing pollsters of 2020 have either adopted wholesale methodological changes or dropped off the map."
I think that it is still TOO CLOSE to call and we will have to wait for the REAL POLL, the actual election. I think, as I said already, that we may not know until at least 24-48 hours after the first polls close. This may not be as close as 2000, but has the potential to be like that: another very close election.
More: (1) It not only comes down to 7 key states (named here several times) but on some 20 key COUNTIES in these 7 key states. I read that in the past day or so. (2) And some of those key states may be among the last to report all ballots, including mail-in and absentees. (3) I think PA may be among the last to report, and by most accounts, this will be the MOST KEY of the states.
),Are F*cking up Kamala's campaign 
ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... 
